| I’ve been asked to give my thoughts on | | | | economies of scale kick in and more networks |
| what trends are likely to emerge during 2007 in | | | | other than Sprint Nextel in the USA do mass |
| the Information and Communications Technology | | | | roll-outs. It will continue to disappoint those who |
| market. As usual, this will be a mix of “duh, | | | | believed all the hype w.r.t. 70Mbps @ 70 miles @ |
| of course, what do you think!” type stuff | | | | 70mph. Some Meshed WiFi networks will appear |
| and some “what are you smoking” | | | | here in SA, whether legal or not, and we’ll |
| ideas that may well be way off the mark! | | | | continue to see a LAN technology play in open |
| Here goes: | | | | spaces it was never intended for. Unlicensed |
| Obviously the desktop hardware technology | | | | Mobile Access, with VoWiFi phones following along |
| “refresh” will get going as IT budgets | | | | behind, causing Mobile Networks to get edgy. |
| are approved and laptop and desktops using | | | | Spectrum is being fiercely fought over. It is a |
| Intel’s new super fast core 2 duo | | | | scarce resource and it is unlikely that anyone |
| chip’s start hitting corporate desks in | | | | other than a few established players will get |
| earnest; followed closely by the early adopters of | | | | licences. There will be many frustrated wannabes. |
| Microsoft’s much awaited new operating | | | | Municipal networks are coming to the fore, with |
| system ‘Vista’. (The more cautious | | | | the Cape Town tender awarded, but challenged, |
| of us will wait for Service Patch 1 or even 2 to | | | | eThekweni ready to roll but caught up with |
| appear!) | | | | legalities, and City of Joburg now out on tender. |
| On the bandwidth front - Broadband, now far | | | | They are unlikely to have any real impact this |
| from broad, will continue to drop in price, but I | | | | year. They do not really have much of a |
| doubt as much as we have seen in the last 18 | | | | sustainable advantage in the long run, as they will |
| months. MTN have created a new benchmark | | | | have to allow others access to infrastructure and |
| with their new offering at around R0.20/MB. It | | | | will find that building a telco is not trivial. |
| would appear to be a limited duration half-price | | | | The Mobile networks will announce HSUPA with |
| special, but shows what can be done! | | | | great fanfare. Mobile broadband will then be about |
| Sentech announced they’re providing more | | | | as broad as it gets for a while, but as up- and |
| bang for buck; lets hope they get their service | | | | down-load speeds will be around 5Mbps, it will |
| offering right this time. Vodacom then dropped | | | | make quadplay (or fourplay?) possible – |
| their price (by 61% according to their ads) after | | | | mobile/voice/internet/video. |
| being almost double everyone else’s price. | | | | Mobile interconnect prices are due to come down |
| iBurst also dropped their pricing, but remain more | | | | by 20 to 25% shortly. This should allow Telkom |
| expensive than Sentech for equivalent packages. | | | | to drop the price of calls to mobile phones – |
| The unlicensed players like Amobia and Uninet are | | | | whether they will pass on the full benefit or not |
| still an order of magnitude cheaper but | | | | will have to be seen. Mobile packages are unlikely |
| don’t have the coverage advantage. It is all | | | | to change as a result though. Least Cost Routing |
| a bit confusing for the man in the street, but | | | | will become more and more marginal and the shift |
| ultimately these changes will make getting online | | | | to Communication Service Providers using VoIP |
| and staying there permanently, more affordable. | | | | will be become more obvious. |
| Offerings should start to differentiate on quality | | | | Asterisk, the open source “IPPBX” |
| (reliability of throughput) and you should be able to | | | | will continue to make some serious inroads into |
| get fixed IP addresses – currently not | | | | the PBX market, with damage being done at a |
| available to ADSL users. This will facilitate hooking | | | | “higher level” in the market than |
| up remote offices for voice and data over IP. | | | | originally proposed – medium to large |
| More telco’s will announce moves to | | | | corporates instead of SME’s. Watch the call |
| converge their voice and data networks onto IP | | | | centres here – they’re the weather |
| based New Generation Networks like British | | | | vane of change. |
| Telecom’s 21st Century Network project. | | | | Hosted IPPBX’s will start emerging as |
| This will make networks more intelligent and | | | | broadband improves and investors in some of the |
| flexible, but will unfortunately not impact on | | | | early VoIP entrants who committed large capex |
| customers for some time to come. | | | | in these sorts of solutions seek to get ROI |
| Video on Demand is growing overseas (where | | | | moving. |
| real broadband exists) – people are | | | | Social Networking using web based applications like |
| prepared to pay a premium over the likes of Mr | | | | MySpace, YouTube, Flickr, blogs, Second Life etc |
| Video et al to choose their viewing for the | | | | will become more widely known and used as |
| evening from their armchair. Don’t hold | | | | people get used to being online 24*7. |
| your breath here – we’re too spread | | | | We’re seeing South African flavours of |
| out geographically to make it profitable just yet. | | | | these appearing. |
| And Telkom still dominates the local loop. | | | | DSL and SSL VPN’s will become more |
| IPTV is being touted by vendors as the next big | | | | popular as DSL prices drop and quality improves |
| thing. Again, dependent on broadband, and | | | | and mobile broadband grows. Business will seek |
| ownership of content will be key! It will not be | | | | help to set up and manage increasingly complex |
| over the Internet, but over managed IP | | | | networks of devices. |
| networks. | | | | As broadband improves in throughput, price and |
| Music and video downloads, both legal and illegal, | | | | reliability, ASP services will become more popular, |
| continue to grow. More cell phones with better | | | | with companies seriously considering (but possibly |
| mp3 players will eventually make people wonder | | | | not committing to just yet) such things as Getting |
| why they have a CD player, but probably not this | | | | Things Done, Gmail and Office packages from the |
| year! Apple’s iPhone will develop a cult | | | | likes of Google rather than Microsoft (from one |
| following but will hardly make a dent in | | | | evil empire to another!?). |
| Nokia’s global market dominance. | | | | VoIP [ will start emerging as more than just a |
| Instant Messaging (IM) will continue to grow. Local | | | | cost saving exercise with some of the first real |
| mobile phone based instant messaging service, | | | | value adds starting to come through, with |
| MXIT (Think MSN messenger on your phone) will | | | | integration into calendars, address books, |
| find ways of “growing up” and | | | | CRM’s and PBX’s. |
| becoming more respectable. IM will start making | | | | There will be a lot of consolidation in the next few |
| deeper inroads into corporate culture with IT | | | | years, with bigger players buying smaller, more |
| managers needing to develop policies on IM usage. | | | | niche players to fulfill the need to have broader |
| WiMAX equipment will drop in price as the | | | | voice and data offering. |